Nikoloz Basilashvili v Carlos Alcaraz
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONC. Alcaraz is 8-2 over the last ten and 29-4 on hard this season. N. Basilashvili is 8-2 over the last ten and 21-17 on hard this season. N. Basilashvili retired from a match in the last month. N. Basilashvili has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is N. Basilashvili 0-1.
The pick is C. Alcaraz to win. We make it a 87% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.16 or bigger. At 1.10 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| N. Basilashvili | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| 124 | Ranking | 3 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WLWWW | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| +2.9 | V the odds | -0.3 |
| 33-31 | Season | 35-5 |
| 21-17 | Hard 2026 | 29-4 |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| retired | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | N. BasilashvilivC. Alcaraz | 1-6 6-7 |
| 2022-05-03 | Madrid | N. BasilashvilivC. Alcaraz | 3-6 5-7 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
N. Basilashvili — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | C. Alcaraz | 8.24 | 88% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 6-7 BasilashviliAlcarazPoints won46%54%Serve points won58%66%Return points won34%42%Games held6 of 99 of 10Break points saved4 of 70 of 1Aces49Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | J. Rodionov | 1.67 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-1 BasilashviliRodionovPoints won57%43%Serve points won67%55%Return points won45%33%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved4 of 54 of 7Aces66Double faults33 | |||||||
| 2026-10-25 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | D. Medvedev | 4.57 | 79% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 1-6 3-6 BasilashviliMedvedevPoints won45%55%Serve points won64%76%Return points won24%36%Games held10 of 1414 of 14Break points saved6 of 102 of 2Aces322Double faults34 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | S. Tsitsipas | 2.96 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-3 BasilashviliTsitsipasPoints won54%46%Serve points won75%67%Return points won33%25%Games held16 of 1613 of 15Break points saved3 of 36 of 8Aces711Double faults40 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Mannarino | 1.77 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-1 BasilashviliMannarinoPoints won57%43%Serve points won68%55%Return points won45%32%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved3 of 34 of 8Aces116Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | F. Diaz Acosta | 1.43 | 68% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 BasilashviliAcostaPoints won61%39%Serve points won76%53%Return points won47%24%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved1 of 20 of 4Aces146Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | M. Cilic | 1.67 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 7-5 BasilashviliCilicPoints won55%45%Serve points won65%54%Return points won46%35%Games held8 of 105 of 10Break points saved3 of 54 of 9Aces138Double faults35 | |||||||
| 2026-10-18 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Walton | 1.72 | 56% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 BasilashviliWaltonPoints won53%47%Serve points won76%64%Return points won36%24%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved0 of 011 of 12Aces1115Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-17 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | T. Daniel | 1.65 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 7-5 BasilashviliDanielPoints won59%41%Serve points won71%53%Return points won47%29%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved1 of 22 of 6Aces74Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Mannarino | RET | 1.97 | 51% | LOST |
Games in each set3-6 2-2 BasilashviliMannarinoPoints won41%59%Serve points won65%85%Return points won15%35%Games held5 of 67 of 7Break points saved0 of 10 of 0Aces83Double faults21 | |||||||
C. Alcaraz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | T. Paul | 1.29 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazPaulPoints won52%48%Serve points won68%69%Return points won31%32%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved5 of 53 of 4Aces53Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | N. Basilashvili | 1.10 | 88% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 7-6 AlcarazBasilashviliPoints won54%46%Serve points won66%58%Return points won42%34%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved0 of 14 of 7Aces94Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | K. Khachanov | 1.23 | 79% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazKhachanovPoints won54%46%Serve points won66%54%Return points won46%34%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved0 of 26 of 9Aces34Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | Z. Bergs | 1.07 | 91% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 6-7 AlcarazBergsPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%68%Return points won32%38%Games held9 of 1210 of 12Break points saved1 of 40 of 2Aces59Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 1.07 | 90% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-3 AlcarazCerundoloPoints won58%42%Serve points won80%61%Return points won39%20%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 04 of 7Aces82Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-06 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Lehecka | 1.29 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 AlcarazLeheckaPoints won53%47%Serve points won79%68%Return points won32%21%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 32 of 4Aces47Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-05 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Munar | 1.12 | 86% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-1 AlcarazMunarPoints won54%46%Serve points won61%53%Return points won47%39%Games held11 of 148 of 14Break points saved2 of 54 of 10Aces32Double faults44 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Shapovalov | RET | 1.13 | 85% | WON |
Games in each set7-6 2-1 AlcarazShapovalovPoints won55%45%Serve points won57%48%Return points won52%43%Games held5 of 84 of 7Break points saved1 of 44 of 7Aces01Double faults13 | |||||||
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Arnaldi | 1.07 | 91% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-1 AlcarazArnaldiPoints won55%45%Serve points won66%58%Return points won42%34%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved2 of 34 of 7Aces11Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Michelsen | 1.17 | 83% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 4-6 6-1 AlcarazMichelsenPoints won54%46%Serve points won60%53%Return points won47%40%Games held10 of 158 of 14Break points saved8 of 137 of 13Aces50Double faults54 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Nikoloz Basilashvili or Carlos Alcaraz?
Carlos Alcaraz is favourite at 1.10, which is a 88% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Nikoloz Basilashvili is 8.24 and Carlos Alcaraz is 1.10, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.
What is the head-to-head between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Carlos Alcaraz?
They have met 2 times and Carlos Alcaraz leads 2-0.
Who will win Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Our model makes it Carlos Alcaraz to win at 1.10 (Lean confidence).