ChallengerClayCosta do Sauipe2026-11-03 19:00

Rafael Tosetto v Franco Roncadelli

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

R. Tosetto to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 2.19 or bigger · our chance 46% · market 15/85, us 17/83

R. Tosetto is 5-5 over the last ten and 21-20 on clay this season. F. Roncadelli is 4-6 over the last ten and 28-21 on clay this season. The head to head is R. Tosetto 0-2.

The pick is R. Tosetto to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 46% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.19 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

R. Tosetto		F. Roncadelli
1082	Ranking	265
5-5	Last 10	4-6
WWLLL	Last 5	LLWWL
+1.2	V the odds	-0.7
25-23	Season	34-24
21-20	Clay 2026	28-21
3	Last 7 days	0
1d	Days rest	8d
2	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-2

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

R. Tosetto6.5315%

F. RoncadelliFAV1.1285%

Market says85% Roncadelli

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

R. TosettoWWLLL

F. RoncadelliLLWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

R. Tosetto0

F. Roncadelli2

Head to head2 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2024-05-06	Santos	F. RoncadellivR. Tosetto	1-6 6-2 6-0
2023-10-22	Curitiba Challenger Men	R. TosettovF. Roncadelli	6-4 6-7

This season & this event

R. Tosetto

F. Roncadelli

25-23

21-20

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on clay

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

34-24

28-21

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Rafael Tosetto

Brazil

Franco Roncadelli

Uruguay

1082

Brazil

5–5

—

5–5

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

265

Uruguay

32–22

0–1

29–20

0–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

R. Tosetto — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Costa do Sauipe	Clay	P. A. Saraiva Dos Santos	3.03	68%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 TosettoSantosPoints won57%43%Serve points won71%56%Return points won44%29%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved5 of 67 of 10Aces44Double faults41
2026-11-01	Costa do Sauipe	Clay	Y. Lalami Laaroussi	1.76	54%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 TosettoLaaroussiPoints won59%41%Serve points won70%52%Return points won48%30%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved4 of 410 of 14Aces23Double faults15
2026-10-27	M15 João Pessoa (Brazil), Clay	—	T. Martinez	1.89	51%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 2-6 3-6 TosettoMartinezPoints won49%51%Serve points won60%63%Return points won37%40%Games held9 of 1210 of 13Break points saved5 of 82 of 5
2026-10-21	M15 Maceio (Brazil)	Clay	T. Farjat	2.10	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 3-6 2-6
2026-10-17	M15 Maringa 3 (Brazil)	Clay	J. E. Schiessl	4.18	77%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 2-6 TosettoSchiesslPoints won37%63%Serve points won35%62%Return points won38%65%Games held2 of 77 of 8Break points saved0 of 44 of 5
2026-10-16	M15 Maringa 3 (Brazil)	Clay	P. H. Chabalgoity	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 TosettoChabalgoityPoints won54%46%Serve points won72%59%Return points won41%28%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved4 of 46 of 8
2026-10-15	M15 Maringa 3 (Brazil)	Clay	V. Goncalves	2.20	57%	WON
Games in each set7-6 2-6 6-4 TosettoGoncalvesPoints won48%52%Serve points won69%72%Return points won28%31%Games held12 of 1513 of 15Break points saved2 of 50 of 2
2026-10-13	M15 Maringa 3 (Brazil)	Clay	I. Monzon	3.00	68%	WON
Games in each set7-5 4-6 6-3 TosettoMonzonPoints won51%49%Serve points won56%56%Return points won44%44%Games held11 of 169 of 15Break points saved3 of 81 of 6
2026-09-27	Curitiba	Clay	J. Pereira	—	—	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 3-6 TosettoPereiraPoints won49%51%Serve points won57%61%Return points won39%43%Games held10 of 1411 of 14Break points saved7 of 115 of 8Aces60Double faults93
2026-09-24	M15 Curitiba (Brazil)	Clay	V. C. Loureiro J.	—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-7

F. Roncadelli — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-26	Guayaquil	Clay	V. Aboian	1.61	60%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-2 2-6 RoncadelliAboianPoints won46%54%Serve points won50%57%Return points won43%50%Games held6 of 128 of 13Break points saved5 of 114 of 9Aces12Double faults20
2026-10-16	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	J. M. La Serna	—	—	LOST
Games in each set1-6 7-6 4-6 RoncadelliSernaPoints won46%54%Serve points won57%65%Return points won35%43%Games held9 of 1512 of 14Break points saved5 of 113 of 5Aces00Double faults13
2026-10-14	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	J. C. Prado Angelo	3.19	70%	WON
Games in each set6-4 2-6 6-3 RoncadelliAngeloPoints won49%51%Serve points won48%50%Return points won50%52%Games held7 of 146 of 13Break points saved2 of 912 of 19Aces02Double faults11
2026-10-12	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	V. Aboian	1.48	65%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-0 6-3 RoncadelliAboianPoints won55%45%Serve points won56%46%Return points won54%44%Games held10 of 146 of 13Break points saved5 of 93 of 10Aces02Double faults25
2026-10-05	Antofagasta	Clay	T. Barrios Vera	3.52	73%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 RoncadelliVeraPoints won44%56%Serve points won54%68%Return points won32%46%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved6 of 104 of 5Aces01Double faults01
2026-09-28	Curitiba	Clay	G. I. Justo	2.06	53%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 RoncadelliJustoPoints won46%54%Serve points won43%51%Return points won49%57%Games held3 of 105 of 10Break points saved7 of 147 of 12Aces01Double faults21
2026-09-23	Buenos Aires 3	Clay	P. Boscardin Dias	1.88	51%	LOST
Games in each set6-0 6-7 3-6 RoncadelliDiasPoints won52%48%Serve points won67%60%Return points won40%33%Games held10 of 139 of 14Break points saved2 of 54 of 9Aces01Double faults04
2026-09-22	Buenos Aires 3	Clay	B. Fernandez	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-0 RoncadelliFernandezPoints won68%32%Serve points won76%38%Return points won62%24%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved1 of 11 of 6Aces01Double faults05
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group II	- Preliminary	K. Tamm	1.25	75%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 RoncadelliTammPoints won58%42%Serve points won61%45%Return points won55%39%Games held7 of 94 of 9Break points saved5 of 72 of 7
2026-08-24	US Open	Hard	E. Ymer	5.03	81%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 RoncadelliYmerPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%62%Return points won38%42%Games held6 of 108 of 9Break points saved0 of 43 of 4Aces07Double faults03

Common questions

Who is favourite, Rafael Tosetto or Franco Roncadelli?

Franco Roncadelli is favourite at 1.12, which is a 85% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Rafael Tosetto vs Franco Roncadelli?

Rafael Tosetto is 6.53 and Franco Roncadelli is 1.12, the prices we recorded for the Costa do Sauipe match.

What is the head-to-head between Rafael Tosetto and Franco Roncadelli?

They have met 2 times and Franco Roncadelli leads 2-0.

Who will win Rafael Tosetto vs Franco Roncadelli?

Our model makes it Rafael Tosetto to win a set (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Misolic v Varillas Monteiro v Storck Galan v Bueno Silva v Taverna Ribeiro v Miguel Miguel v Marcondes