Sebastian Baez v Tomas Machac
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONT. Machac is 6-4 over the last ten and 16-15 on hard this season. S. Baez is 3-7 over the last ten and 25-16 on hard this season. The head to head is S. Baez 0-2.
The pick is T. Machac to win 2-0. We make it a 56% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.79 or bigger. At 1.66 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| S. Baez | T. Machac | |
|---|---|---|
| 53 | Ranking | 72 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WLLLW | Last 5 | WLWLW |
| -1.4 | V the odds | +0.1 |
| 36-30 | Season | 21-19 |
| 25-16 | Hard 2026 | 16-15 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-2 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Paris | S. BaezvT. Machac | 2-6 4-6 |
| 2026-04-14 | Barcelona | T. MachacvS. Baez | 2-6 6-4 6-1 |
| 2025-04-08 | Monte Carlo | T. MachacvS. Baez | 3-6 6-3 6-2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
S. Baez — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | D. Merida Aguilar | — | — | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 2-6 BaezAguilarPoints won46%54%Serve points won60%67%Return points won33%40%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved6 of 94 of 4Aces26Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-11-01 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | T. Machac | 5.13 | 81% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 4-6 BaezMachacPoints won43%57%Serve points won55%77%Return points won23%45%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved9 of 120 of 0Aces28Double faults41 | |||||||
| 2026-10-31 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | D. Dzumhur | 2.54 | 62% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 7-5 BaezDzumhurPoints won52%48%Serve points won59%53%Return points won47%41%Games held8 of 127 of 12Break points saved8 of 128 of 13Aces45Double faults03 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 2.33 | 59% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 3-6 BaezPerricardPoints won48%52%Serve points won63%67%Return points won33%37%Games held10 of 1312 of 14Break points saved2 of 51 of 3Aces222Double faults04 | |||||||
| 2026-10-20 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | P. Herbert | 2.42 | 60% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 BaezHerbertPoints won46%54%Serve points won59%70%Return points won30%41%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved12 of 145 of 5Aces010Double faults13 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | V. Vacherot | 3.55 | 73% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 6-7 BaezVacherotPoints won45%55%Serve points won66%77%Return points won23%34%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved1 of 32 of 3Aces515Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Giron | 1.76 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set1-6 6-3 6-4 BaezGironPoints won51%49%Serve points won56%55%Return points won45%44%Games held8 of 138 of 13Break points saved6 of 115 of 10Aces28Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | J. Shang | 2.33 | 58% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-5 3-6 5-7 BaezShangPoints won48%52%Serve points won56%60%Return points won40%44%Games held11 of 1712 of 16Break points saved9 of 158 of 12Aces33Double faults32 | |||||||
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | J. Brooksby | 2.36 | 59% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 5-7 BaezBrooksbyPoints won47%53%Serve points won68%72%Return points won28%32%Games held10 of 1212 of 12Break points saved0 of 22 of 2Aces71Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | B. Nakashima | 6.53 | 85% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 1-6 0-6 BaezNakashimaPoints won33%67%Serve points won42%75%Return points won25%58%Games held3 of 1011 of 11Break points saved4 of 113 of 3Aces012Double faults40 | |||||||
T. Machac — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | K. Jacquet | 1.48 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-1 MachacJacquetPoints won55%45%Serve points won70%61%Return points won39%30%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved2 of 21 of 3Aces1511Double faults33 | |||||||
| 2026-11-01 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | S. Baez | 1.18 | 81% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 MachacBaezPoints won57%43%Serve points won77%55%Return points won45%23%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 09 of 12Aces82Double faults14 | |||||||
| 2026-10-31 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | M. Landaluce | 1.50 | 64% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-3 MachacLandalucePoints won56%44%Serve points won70%60%Return points won40%30%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved7 of 74 of 6Aces26Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-26 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. De Minaur | 2.97 | 67% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-1 4-6 3-6 MachacMinaurPoints won51%49%Serve points won57%56%Return points won44%43%Games held8 of 138 of 13Break points saved6 of 113 of 8Aces32Double faults33 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | C. Moutet | 1.58 | 61% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MachacMoutetPoints won58%42%Serve points won71%52%Return points won48%29%Games held7 of 74 of 6Break points saved0 of 02 of 4Aces51Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-22 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | K. Khachanov | 3.29 | 70% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 6-4 6-7 MachacKhachanovPoints won48%52%Serve points won66%71%Return points won29%34%Games held13 of 1514 of 15Break points saved4 of 614 of 15Aces314Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | Z. Nurlanuly | 1.04 | 93% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-0 MachacNurlanulyPoints won65%35%Serve points won69%40%Return points won60%31%Games held6 of 71 of 7Break points saved3 of 42 of 8Aces80Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-16 | Jinan | Hard | L. Draxl | 1.38 | 70% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 6-3 4-6 MachacDraxlPoints won50%50%Serve points won56%56%Return points won44%44%Games held10 of 1510 of 14Break points saved5 of 1012 of 16Aces85Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-15 | Jinan | Hard | A. Vukic | 1.45 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-1 MachacVukicPoints won61%39%Serve points won72%49%Return points won51%28%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved0 of 02 of 6Aces52Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Jinan | Hard | A. Muller | 1.45 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MachacMullerPoints won56%44%Serve points won69%54%Return points won46%31%Games held8 of 96 of 10Break points saved1 of 24 of 8Aces42Double faults01 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Sebastian Baez or Tomas Machac?
Tomas Machac is favourite at 1.18, which is a 81% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Machac?
Sebastian Baez is 5.13 and Tomas Machac is 1.18, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.
What is the head-to-head between Sebastian Baez and Tomas Machac?
They have met 3 times and Tomas Machac leads 3-0.
Who will win Sebastian Baez vs Tomas Machac?
Our model makes it Tomas Machac to win 2-0 at 1.66 (Lean confidence).