ChallengerHardCharlottesville2026-11-01 16:00

Joshua Sheehy v Justin Boulais

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

LeanWON

J. Boulais to win1.43

Price too short today - wait for 1.49 or bigger · our chance 67% · market 34/66, us 33/67

J. Boulais is 3-7 over the last ten and 31-26 on hard this season. J. Sheehy is 2-8 over the last ten and 10-14 on hard this season. The head to head is J. Sheehy 0-1.

The pick is J. Boulais to win. We make it a 67% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.49 or bigger. At 1.43 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

J. Sheehy		J. Boulais
772	Ranking	403
2-8	Last 10	3-7
LLLLW	Last 5	LLLLW
-2.4	V the odds	-2.4
11-19	Season	31-27
10-14	Hard 2026	31-26
0	Last 7 days	1
14d	Days rest	7d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

J. Sheehy2.8134%

J. BoulaisFAV1.4366%

Market says66% Boulais

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

J. SheehyLLLLL

J. BoulaisWWLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

J. Sheehy0

J. Boulais2

Head to head2 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-11-01	Charlottesville	J. SheehyvJ. Boulais	6-1 2-6 0-6
2023-07-30	Lexington Challenger Men	J. BoulaisvJ. Sheehy	6-2 7-5

This season & this event

J. Sheehy

J. Boulais

11-20

10-15

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

33-27

33-26

Lost R32 to C. Kingsley

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Joshua Sheehy

USA

Justin Boulais

Canada

772

USA

11–18

10–14

1–4

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

403

Canada

30–22

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

J. Sheehy — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-01	Charlottesville	Hard	J. Boulais		2.81	66%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 2-6 0-6 SheehyBoulaisPoints won47%53%Serve points won49%55%Return points won45%51%Games held5 of 108 of 11Break points saved7 of 1211 of 14Aces54Double faults54
2026-10-18	Fort Worth (Usa) - Qualification, Hard	—	A. McHugh		3.17	70%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 SheehyMcHughPoints won40%60%Serve points won50%68%Return points won32%50%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved1 of 53 of 3Aces32Double faults11
2026-10-04	Villena	Clay	I. Marrero Curbelo		2.87	67%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-2 6-7 SheehyCurbeloPoints won48%52%Serve points won58%65%Return points won35%42%Games held10 of 149 of 13Break points saved5 of 92 of 6Aces71Double faults43
2026-09-13	Rennes	Hard (Indoor)	P. Zahraj		2.98	68%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 3-6 SheehyZahrajPoints won42%58%Serve points won60%81%Return points won19%40%Games held8 of 1011 of 11Break points saved7 of 91 of 1Aces43Double faults00
2026-08-24	Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification	Hard	E. Zhu		3.00	68%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 0-6 SheehyZhuPoints won39%61%Serve points won45%69%Return points won31%55%Games held4 of 98 of 9Break points saved5 of 101 of 2Aces43Double faults73
2026-08-23	Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification	Hard	L. Britto	RET	1.03	92%	WON
Games in each set6-2 SheehyBrittoPoints won61%39%Serve points won75%50%Return points won50%25%Games held4 of 42 of 4Break points saved2 of 24 of 6Aces01Double faults22
2026-08-03	Lexington	Hard	A. Shelbayh		3.87	76%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-2 6-7 SheehyShelbayhPoints won50%50%Serve points won66%65%Return points won35%34%Games held12 of 1412 of 15Break points saved5 of 78 of 11Aces107Double faults95
2026-07-27	Vancouver	Hard	R. Tokuda		2.41	60%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 5-7 SheehyTokudaPoints won50%50%Serve points won68%67%Return points won33%32%Games held16 of 1716 of 17Break points saved7 of 86 of 7Aces165Double faults53
2026-07-19	Winnipeg	Hard	E. Winter		3.05	69%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 0-6 SheehyWinterPoints won42%58%Serve points won55%72%Return points won28%45%Games held8 of 1212 of 13Break points saved7 of 115 of 6Aces50Double faults83
2026-07-13	Lincoln	Hard	C. Langmo		2.57	63%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 7-6 5-7 SheehyLangmoPoints won48%52%Serve points won67%73%Return points won27%33%Games held14 of 1617 of 17Break points saved6 of 81 of 1Aces1311Double faults32

J. Boulais — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Charlottesville	Hard	S. Heredia	1.16	81%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-0 BoulaisHerediaPoints won67%33%Serve points won82%44%Return points won56%18%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved0 of 01 of 6Aces53Double faults32
2026-11-01	Charlottesville	Hard	J. Sheehy	1.43	66%	WON
Games in each set1-6 6-2 6-0 BoulaisSheehyPoints won53%47%Serve points won55%49%Return points won51%45%Games held8 of 115 of 10Break points saved11 of 147 of 12Aces45Double faults45
2026-10-25	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	S. Dominko	2.26	58%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 3-6 4-6 BoulaisDominkoPoints won49%51%Serve points won69%69%Return points won31%31%Games held13 of 1515 of 16Break points saved2 of 43 of 4Aces114Double faults25
2026-09-27	Mouilleron-Le-Captif	Hard (Indoor)	A. Reco	1.44	64%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 BoulaisRecoPoints won44%56%Serve points won56%69%Return points won31%44%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved5 of 81 of 2Aces44Double faults11
2026-09-22	St. Tropez	Hard	H. Mayot	—	—	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-2 6-7 BoulaisMayotPoints won50%50%Serve points won59%59%Return points won41%41%Games held11 of 1510 of 15Break points saved5 of 97 of 12Aces22Double faults61
2026-09-21	St. Tropez	Hard	M. Martineau	2.53	62%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 1-6 BoulaisMartineauPoints won40%60%Serve points won52%73%Return points won27%48%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved3 of 71 of 1Aces05Double faults33
2026-09-20	St. Tropez	Hard	M. Kaouk	1.36	70%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-2 BoulaisKaoukPoints won53%47%Serve points won51%46%Return points won54%49%Games held8 of 146 of 15Break points saved7 of 1313 of 22Aces44Double faults67
2026-09-14	Rennes	Hard (Indoor)	M. Bobichon	1.58	61%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 BoulaisBobichonPoints won46%54%Serve points won61%68%Return points won32%39%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved1 of 34 of 5Aces28Double faults04
2026-09-13	Rennes	Hard (Indoor)	T. Arribage	1.13	85%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 BoulaisArribagePoints won57%43%Serve points won70%55%Return points won45%30%Games held4 of 90 of 8Break points saved4 of 91 of 9Aces40Double faults35
2026-09-07	Cassis	Hard	M. Bobichon	1.43	66%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 6-7 3-6 BoulaisBobichonPoints won48%52%Serve points won59%65%Return points won35%41%Games held12 of 1611 of 14Break points saved5 of 93 of 6Aces45Double faults108

Common questions

Who is favourite, Joshua Sheehy or Justin Boulais?

Justin Boulais is favourite at 1.43, which is a 66% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Joshua Sheehy vs Justin Boulais?

Joshua Sheehy is 2.81 and Justin Boulais is 1.43, the prices we recorded for the Charlottesville match.

What is the head-to-head between Joshua Sheehy and Justin Boulais?

They have met 2 times and Justin Boulais leads 2-0.

Who will win Joshua Sheehy vs Justin Boulais?

Our model makes it Justin Boulais to win at 1.43 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Hussey v Heredia Schulenburg v Heredia Milavsky v Charlton Mitsui v Blancaneaux Kim v Baris Nesterov v Trotter