ChallengerHardNingbo2026-10-25 03:00

Ryuki Matsuda v Naoya Honda

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

StrongLOST

R. Matsuda to win1.89

Worth backing at 1.75 or bigger · our chance 57% · market 50/50, us 57/43

R. Matsuda is 6-4 over the last ten and 27-30 on hard this season. N. Honda is 4-6 over the last ten and 26-25 on hard this season.

The pick is R. Matsuda to win. We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.75 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

R. Matsuda		N. Honda
701	Ranking	656
6-4	Last 10	4-6
LWWLL	Last 5	LLLLW
-0.2	V the odds	-1.2
29-31	Season	26-25
27-30	Hard 2026	26-25
3	Last 7 days	1
2d	Days rest	7d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

R. MatsudaFAV1.8950%

N. Honda1.8950%

Market says50% Matsuda

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

R. MatsudaLLWWL

N. HondaWWLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

R. Matsuda0

N. Honda1

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-10-25	Ningbo	R. MatsudavN. Honda	3-6 3-6

This season & this event

R. Matsuda

N. Honda

29-32

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

28-25

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Ryuki Matsuda

Japan

Naoya Honda

Japan

701

Japan

23–26

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

656

Japan

24–21

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

R. Matsuda — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-25	Ningbo	Hard	N. Honda	1.89	50%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 MatsudaHondaPoints won45%55%Serve points won49%59%Return points won41%51%Games held4 of 97 of 9Break points saved6 of 114 of 6Aces27Double faults05
2026-10-23	M25 Mumbai 2 (India)	Hard	D. Singh	2.08	54%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 MatsudaSinghPoints won39%61%Serve points won50%73%Return points won27%50%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved1 of 53 of 3
2026-10-22	M25 Mumbai 2 (India)	Hard	P. Sornlaksup	1.77	54%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-0 MatsudaSornlaksupPoints won57%43%Serve points won65%48%Return points won52%35%Games held8 of 94 of 9Break points saved5 of 611 of 16
2026-10-21	M25 Mumbai 2 (India)	Hard	M. Sasikumar	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 MatsudaSasikumarPoints won55%45%Serve points won65%55%Return points won45%35%Games held8 of 96 of 10Break points saved1 of 22 of 6
2026-10-13	M25 Solapur (India)	Hard	M. Kesharwani	—	—	LOST
Games in each set5-7 7-6 4-6 MatsudaKesharwaniPoints won45%55%Serve points won58%68%Return points won32%42%Games held12 of 1714 of 18Break points saved1 of 65 of 8
2026-10-05	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	Y. Kikuchi	1.36	68%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 MatsudaKikuchiPoints won40%60%Serve points won50%70%Return points won30%50%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved4 of 82 of 3Aces15Double faults01
2026-10-04	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	S. Betov	1.05	90%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-1 MatsudaBetovPoints won56%44%Serve points won64%51%Return points won49%36%Games held7 of 84 of 9Break points saved4 of 57 of 12Aces18Double faults19
2026-10-03	M15 Luan 4	Hard	N. Ehrenschneider	2.70	65%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 3-6 2-6 MatsudaEhrenschneiderPoints won49%51%Serve points won60%62%Return points won38%40%Games held9 of 1310 of 12Break points saved0 of 46 of 8
2026-10-02	M15 Luan 4	Hard	K. Ogura	1.44	64%	WON
Games in each set7-5 7-5 MatsudaOguraPoints won57%43%Serve points won65%51%Return points won49%35%Games held9 of 127 of 12Break points saved8 of 117 of 12
2026-10-01	M15 Luan 4	Hard	R. Komagata	1.18	81%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 MatsudaKomagataPoints won57%43%Serve points won68%54%Return points won46%32%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved3 of 43 of 6

N. Honda — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-26	Ningbo	Hard	K. Sultanov		3.72	75%	WON
Games in each set3-6 7-5 6-4 HondaSultanovPoints won51%49%Serve points won60%60%Return points won40%40%Games held11 of 1511 of 16Break points saved5 of 93 of 8Aces45Double faults80
2026-10-25	Ningbo	Hard	R. Matsuda		1.89	50%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 HondaMatsudaPoints won55%45%Serve points won59%49%Return points won51%41%Games held7 of 94 of 9Break points saved4 of 66 of 11Aces72Double faults50
2026-10-18	Guangzhou	Hard	K. Samrej		2.99	68%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 5-7 HondaSamrejPoints won47%53%Serve points won64%68%Return points won32%36%Games held12 of 1514 of 16Break points saved4 of 74 of 6Aces1216Double faults58
2026-10-04	Wuning 3 (China) - Qualification	Hard	K. Tamm		1.34	69%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 HondaTammPoints won44%56%Serve points won60%78%Return points won22%40%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved7 of 90 of 1Aces19Double faults31
2026-09-28	Jingshan	Hard	M. Sharipov		—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 HondaSharipovPoints won44%56%Serve points won63%80%Return points won20%37%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved8 of 103 of 3Aces514Double faults24
2026-09-17	Guangzhou 2	Hard	P. Bar Biryukov		2.75	67%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 HondaBiryukovPoints won44%56%Serve points won64%75%Return points won25%36%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 52 of 2Aces67Double faults51
2026-09-15	Guangzhou 2	Hard	N. Basilashvili	RET	3.78	75%	WON
Games in each set2-6 7-6 HondaBasilashviliPoints won49%51%Serve points won63%60%Return points won40%37%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved2 of 54 of 5Aces1011Double faults37
2026-09-14	Guangzhou 2	Hard	J. Flores		1.49	64%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 HondaFloresPoints won57%43%Serve points won84%70%Return points won30%16%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved0 of 02 of 4Aces25Double faults12
2026-09-13	Guangzhou 2	Hard	H. Duan		1.01	91%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-3 HondaDuanPoints won64%36%Serve points won82%55%Return points won45%18%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved1 of 12 of 5Aces42Double faults21
2026-09-09	M25 Sapporo	Hard	R. Tanuma		1.52	63%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 2-6 HondaTanumaPoints won51%49%Serve points won63%61%Return points won39%37%Games held11 of 1612 of 15Break points saved5 of 94 of 7

Common questions

Who is favourite, Ryuki Matsuda or Naoya Honda?

Ryuki Matsuda is favourite at 1.89, which is a 50% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Ryuki Matsuda vs Naoya Honda?

Ryuki Matsuda is 1.89 and Naoya Honda is 1.89, the prices we recorded for the Ningbo match.

What is the head-to-head between Ryuki Matsuda and Naoya Honda?

They have met 1 time and Naoya Honda leads 1-0.

Who will win Ryuki Matsuda vs Naoya Honda?

Our model makes it Ryuki Matsuda to win at 1.89 (Strong confidence).

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